Tarek William Saab is general attorney of Venezuela. He initially dismissed arrest of Alex Saab, who is not a relative of his, and Raul Gorrín as fake news. However, a few minutes later, he reassessed his comments and concluded that he had no further information on legal situation of Alex Saab and Raúl Gorrín: in line with previous declarations from Jorge Rodríguez, president of National Assembly who chose not to comment on this arrest, despite having in the past long lobbied for his release from United States prison several years ago.
Diosdado Cabello and Delcy Rodríguez continue evading mention to matter. They instead appeared jointly at a populist event in Ciudad Bolívar: showing unity between police and executive branch. Diosdado Cabello and Delcy Rodríguez have reasons to fear. They simultaneously support Alex and Raúl Gorrín’s request as complying with United States demand for extradition into United States would entail a major insurance for saving their own political jobs. United States is interested in cooperating with Venezuela and expanding symbiosis between SEBIN, FBI and CIA.
Donald Trump continues considering Venezuela and United States as a single country, as world’s greatest oil reserve and producing country. Indeed, Venezuela’s petroleum industry makes more sense tied to United States: as shipping time and cost to United States. is shorter and cheaper than to Asia. Venezuelans had a history of a deep relationship with United States in past, while anti-imperialism is becoming extremely complicated due to situation in Cuba. Miguel Díaz Canel has conceded that he is willing to dialogue with United States on any topic: removing anti-imperialism slogans, while Grand Nephew of Raúl Castro is dealing with CIA in Mexico in a similar fashion as Delcy Rodríguez previously dealt with CIA in Caracas, long before United States extraction of former President Maduro.
Cuba might evolve into an economic agreement with United States, which would entail serious economic and legal reforms within Cuba, similar to those that are already being applied in Venezuela, so that American investment gets preferential status. In return, United States would supply Cuba with 100,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil, which would be paid for by United States. This sounds quite generous because the United States prohibits Venezuela from sending oil to Cuba for free. United States is determined on conducting oil transactions due to military deployment near Venezuelan coast. Mexico has also been forced to reduce or stop Mexican oil shipments to Cuba: as Mexico and Venezuela have a history of sending petroleum for free, or on long-term debts which are never repaid. Cuba is used to receiving petroleum for free from anyone. That was also the case with Russia and the Soviet Union in the remote past.
Would United States supply Cuba with 100,000 barrels of oil daily for free, in exchange of American investment and legal reforms? This sounds absolutely hilarious and unbelievable. However, in national security interests of United States, that would enhance its relationship with Mexico and Venezuela as a reliable partner, really interested in Latin American unity or Western Hemisphere regional security in general, while Cuba would have no option but to comply with stiff daily assignments from United States to Cuban government. Taking the example of Delcy Rodríguez, it sounds like United States tolerates communist and socialist propaganda as long as it is confined to rhetoric, while deep reforms are according to United States designs. That is proving true in Venezuela with arrest of Alex Saab and Raul Gorrín, hydrocarbon law and amnesty law. Same recipe should be applied to Cuba as well.
Amnesty law was passed on first discussion at Venezuela’s National Assembly. Officialist and opposition deputies, in rare display of national unity express how their opinions have converged. Venezuelan politicians have matured since January 3rd as we deal with adversity of realizing that our country has long been on wrong economic path. National Assembly will turn its attention to civil society over weekend, where specifics of amnesty law will be proposed to civil society, universities, business associations so that next week amnesty law may be finally approved on second discussion. Text of amnesty law has not been made available yet. It is confirmed that amnesty law will exclude persons who have recurrently asked for United States invasion into Venezuela. While most cases of release of political prisoners would be honored, military and police prisoners are said to be token exchange assets for Diosdado Cabello who is forcefully trying to prevent their liberation.
Civil society is understandably asking for further transparency in general: both in cases of arrest of Alex Saab and Raúl Gorrín, and on actual works of Amnesty law. It is likely that Venezuelans will know full contents of Amnesty Law once it is published at the Venezuelan Official Gazette. All opposition candidates have voted in approval of Amnesty Law, while many officialist deputies have asserted that their previous maximalist pretensions have been erased in favor of a more tolerant and inclusive attitude. We shall expect that text of Amnesty Law will be adequate despite minor disagreements, as always happen with any new law.
On the international front, Presidents Luis Inácio Lula Da Silva and Gustavo Petro have conclusively rejected a return of Nicolás Maduro to Venezuelan presidency. Organization of American States Secretary General Albert Ramin does not seem particularly fond of Nicolas Maduro either. Cuban government is about to be modified, at United States discretion, in next few days. Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua is expected to prudently disappear from public opinion radar during next few months, as he effectively has no allies left.
Caribbean islands one by one are being absorbed by United States. Trinidad and Tobago demands regional security and military cooperation with United States. President Luis Inácio Lula Da Silva of Brazil commented that returning Maduro into Venezuela is absolutely not a priority, as Venezuela’s priority is returning to democracy while increasing Pdvsa’s production to 3 million barrels a day. Lula Da Silva has recently spoken with President of Venezuela Delcy Rodríguez. So it seems that Lula is comfortable with her acting presidency, while Petro looks absolutely convinced and thrilled to work with Delcy Rodríguez. He is already suggesting Ecopetrol’s investments into petroleum fields in Western Venezuela, in order to achieve Great Colombia.
It will be a challenge to confront hardliners of officialism who are used to always holding a grip of power. As Delcy Rodríguez and Diosdado Cabello have always been seen as less communist than Nicolás Maduro, they should certainly take a chance, especially after political prisoners are released as a consequence of Amnesty Law to be approved on second discussion. They might have to tilt to the center or to the right where most of Venezuelan population lies: in agreement with rest of Latin America. Some people claim that President Lula is shifting to the far right after his encounters with Trump and Milei. It looks like socialists are embracing market values and productivity as their own. Research shows that central planning has failed.
Delcy Rodríguez experiment with communes is bold. Chances of success are unknown because historically communes have not worked. But she is emphasizing communes with a very business-oriented industrial modern investment of economies of scale. Yesterday she set example of black beans that should be produced wholly in Venezuela rather than being imported. And she is asking communes around the country to identify which ones are suitable for black bean production, according to terrain characteristics of regional or municipal soil. So a black bean strategy, organized nationally, would be implemented in Venezuela very much like China has already done. It will be interesting to realize how ownership and legal rights for workers who develop those communes will be.
Westerners in general have no deep appreciation of how Chinese legal and economic systems work together. While Donald Trump has realized that over time many of Delcy Rodríguez economic judgment has been sound, and he has chosen to work with her. So ordinary citizens who prefer democracy rather than central planning are understandably wary of communes. Perhaps we will reach a system similar to China where some areas will be developed in a fully capitalist fashion and other areas will be centrally managed through the communes arrangement, as long as those communes really become productive. Recent claims state that Venezuela has become more self-sufficient. However, many statistics provided by Delcy Rodríguez tend to be overconfident as Venezuela probably does not produce 1,200,000 barrels a day. In fact, it has been reported that January petroleum production worldwide, as expressed by OPEC authorities, has actually declined in comparison to September, mostly because of restrictions of exports from Venezuela into discount markets such as China and India.
First quarter of 2026 is still on its way. We have February and March to go and along with January. This is a lagging quarter. During many weeks, we have already expressed expected improvements. We are sowing seeds of economic development and peaceful conviviality among Venezuelans. And we must now wait a long lag of one or two quarters of stabilization at the bottom of economic prosperity. Only time will provoke a recovery phase.
Third phase of transition to democracy is expected by Lula and might actually accelerate if Delcy Rodríguez pushes too hard on her commune stance. There are issues of transparency that have not been confronted. Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez are promising a number of transparency and efficiency goals, none of which have been adequately explained in writing. Of course text of new laws is unknown. We should be wary of press releases and propaganda items. Instead we may concentrate in actually reading exact terms proposed on any legislation that will be passed through National Assembly.
Resumption of international flights is expected progressively between the end of February and April. Bolívar continues declining at its official exchange rate which is now 375 Bolivars per $1. While market rate is around 530 bolivars per dollar, it is a significant discrepancy between both exchange rates. We must remember that Raul Gorrín has been arrested precisely for arbitraging recurrently on both kinds of exchange rates during the Chávez era: because that’s how he made his fortune. Economic policy should emphasize convergence of both exchange rates. Convergence of exchange rates in Venezuela is perhaps single most important economic policy imaginable. As stabilization of exchange rate would facilitate combating inflation in local currency as a single issue rather than as a consequence of constant devaluations.
All economic policies are contingent to whatever changes occur in United States due to transition on presidency of the Federal Reserve, which hopefully will remain hawkish as real interest rates should always be greater than inflation. While supporters of free money prefer low interest rates so that money has no cost. Hopefully, once Venezuela starts producing more millions of barrels of oil daily, it will not be necessary to continue playing with economic policy as our prosperity will be supported by real energetic trade.
Rubén Rivero